Japan and Switzerland

Following a couple of requests, I've added a few more countries to my analyses. I'm updating these dashboards in the background every day and will try to update them here from time to time. If you need a specific dashboard updated please let me know. 

Japan:

For a fair while it appeared that Japan had mostly survived the pandemic fairly well, however in recent days we have seen a steady increase in new cases from 40 or so per day on average for the first part of March to an average of nearly 300 per day in the last week or so. This shows as a marked increase in the compound growth rate (top middle chart) and a steadily rising line on the lower middle chart.

If these new cases are detected at the stage as has been seen previously we can expect to see an increase in fatalities in the coming week or so.

I do not have sufficient data for Japan to calibrate the model with any great degree of accuracy, but if the current draft model works, we could well expect to see daily reports of 20 deaths of more appearing in the next week. I will be watching Japan closely for the next week or so with regards to the level of new cases reported since this will be an important leading indicator for the case trajectory for the country.

Switzerland:

By contrast to Japan, Switzerland is showing all the signs of the rate of new cases plateauing out. New cases have average just over 1000 per day in the period 18th March to 2nd April (incl) and the latest four days have been lower. Even allowing for low recording over the weekend, this suggests that the trend will now start to decline.

I'm expecting the level of daily fatalities to remain flat for some time yet and we may start to see a declining trend in about a week's time.