Iran:
One market that refuses to follow a pattern is Iran. I've been tracking this country in the background for a few weeks now, and the model just doesn't seem to explain what is reported to be happening.
Cases in Iran started to be reported back in February, they grew relatively quickly and first exceeded 100 per day on 6th March. For the following 17 days the new cases averaged just over 1000 per day and the daily fatality rate rose to 130-150 per day. This would be consistent with the lag times and fatality rates observed elsewhere. So at this point the model, although a little high, was performing well and providing a useful indicator.
Then from 23rd March onward cases started to increase (anecdotally this was a week after restrictions were eased). Daily cases peaked at over 3000 per day at the end of March and slowly decreased thereafter. However, the daily fatality rate has stayed the same, which is surprising given the three-fold increase in cases several weeks prior. This lack of increase in fatalities is so far unexplained.
One possibility could be that there are higher rates diagnosis of milder cases, however this is only conjecture at the point, or maybe it could be something more politically driven, or something else entirely.
Any insight on this issue would be most welcome...
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