The rate of new daily cases is still relatively flat with a slight upward trend. It appears that the UK regions may have plateaued in the last 7 days, so we could start to see a decline soon.
Cases among the general public (Pillar 1) appear to be quite stable at about 4000, but we are now seeing rising cases among the key workers and households (Pillar 2). Pillar 2 now represents over 20% of new daily cases, thankfully these cases are based on more widespread swab testing, so hopefully will contain generally milder cases and therefore fatalities will be lower going forward.
Expect daily deaths to be in the range of 800-1000 for the next week and to cross the cumulative 20,000 point by the end of the week.
France:
The long term trend for new daily cases (once I flatten out the spikes with some smoothing) is downwards, but this is very tough to model with any degree of certainty. The latest day available (19/4/20) is very low for new cases at 1101 on the back of 1909 two days before, which I hope is significant, but only time will tell.
Daily deaths should continue to edge downwards and we may see a run of days below 500 per day soon.
Germany:
New cases are decreasing at a steady rate, dropping by 50% in about 9 days. There is a definite shift in the fatality rate (roughly half the previous level) starting on April 10th - the model has been updated to reflect this change.
Daily deaths should continue to fall between now and the end of the month and could be below 100 per day by the beginning of May.
Italy:
Italy is showing a slow and steady decline in new cases, but the fall is very slow at only 2.3% per day on average for the last few weeks. If this continues we can expect a long tail of cases in Italy.
Currently daily fatalities are falling but will follow the same pattern of slow decreases seen in the new case data.
Spain:
Very similar picture to Italy with an average decrease of 3.2% per day in new cases.
There has been a localised increase in new cases in recent days, hopefully this is just a blip (it's a bit early to be a consequence of relaxing some of the lockdown rules in Spain).
This is one country to follow closely for the next few weeks as it may prove a good model for the UK and other countries evaluating lockdown changes in the coming weeks.
Expect daily deaths to continue to fall and should average under 500 a day for the next week or so.
USA:
There was a large spike in daily deaths (3778) added to the data retrospectively on April 14th - these deaths related to the period March 13th to April 14th, so I have distributed the data accordingly to make the trend more representative.
New daily cases are now levelling off (although be aware that the latest couple of days are not always complete), this may continue for some time if it follows the same model as the UK, with some regions lagging behind others by a week or so causing offset local peaks.
The lag/fatality rate has been stable for four weeks now, so the model predictions should be fairly reliable - expect daily deaths to stay in the 2,000 per day range for the next week or so with cumulative deaths at about 60,000 by the end of the month.
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