Due to changes in reporting of both new cases and deaths it is becoming increasingly difficult to model the UK. I will spend some time revisiting the problem this week, but for now here is the latest position for the UK in terms of Pillar 1 new cases and deaths.
The rate of new cases continues to fall at a steady rate of 4% per day on average. There is, naturally, some variability in the data but the underlying trend bodes well (and compares well with other countries).
Expect average daily deaths to be above 400 for the rest of the week and cumulative fatalities through this channel to approach 27,000 by the weekend.
France:
Now that the days of very spiky data appear to be behind us, the data and model for France is settling down nicely. New cases continue to fall at an increasing rate followed by daily deaths rates - it may be we see less than 100 deaths recorded for a single day in France at some point in the next week or so.
Italy:
The rate of new cases in Italy is falling away at about the same rate as the UK, on average about 4% per day. The decreases we saw a few weeks ago are now being reflected in the rate of daily deaths with figures halving in the space of just a few weeks.
Expect daily deaths to keep falling and to approach an average of less than 250 in the coming week. Cumulative figures will start to flatten off at the same point (see lower right chart) but are expected to reach the 30,000 mark at the weekend.
Spain:
The rate of new daily cases continues to hover around the 3,000 per day mark, although the last few days might suggest a new, decreasing trend has started (but it's too early to tell for sure).
My model shows that the ratio of historical new cases to deaths has shifted in the last 10 days or so, meaning that survival rates have now improved. This may reflect earlier or wider testing, but whatever the reason, predicted daily deaths are lower going forward - expect 200 per day for this coming week, with a cumulative figure approaching 26,000 by this time next week.
Germany:
New cases in Germany follow a distinct weekly pattern which can lead to short term increases followed by weekend dips. The overall trend though is towards lower numbers of new cases and a similar downward trend in fatalities (subject to local reporting standards).
If the current trends continue, expect 80 deaths per day on average for the coming week giving a total approaching 7,500 by May 10th.
Note: The weekly factoring model tested with the UK is now being also applied to German data
USA:
New cases are still flat at about 30,000 per day, although regionally, I suspect different underlying patterns are likely to be occurring.
The daily death rate in the USA is improving slightly as the ratio of historical new cases to deaths has fallen - my model has been tuned to reflect this going forward.
Expect a further 12,000 (approx) deaths in the next 7 days with a cumulative total approaching 80,000 by May 9th.
Note: The weekly factoring model tested with the UK is now being also applied to US data
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