Please find below the latest trajectory analysis for the US by state. The situation is now looking far more favourable that a week ago, with the majority of the states having moved to the right of the y-axis denoting a decreasing number of new cases. This means that there is a net reduction in the total number of new cases and, barring and major changes in behaviour, should lead to faster levels of decreasing cases nationally as more states start to decline and are no longer offset by increasing case numbers elsewhere.
Some areas of concern remain with South Dakota, Minnesota and Delaware still growing on a higher than average rate of infection (i.e. new cases per 100K population) and Rhode Island and District of Columbia (D.C) having very high levels of infection around the point of plateau.
California is also of interest - last week the level of new cases was falling, but more recently new cases have started to grow. On a per capita basis this is still fairly low, but the sheer size of local population means that should the infection run out of control case numbers could get very high very quickly. I shall watch this closely over the coming weeks.
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