Following on from the previous post on this subject, the top line numbers are starting to fall (as would be expected from the regular daily briefings), but weekly numbers are still considerably above historical trend. In the latest week there were just over 8,000 more deaths than might typically be expected.
Looking at the various measures of Covid-19 reporting gives the picture below. There are over 46 thousand more deaths in recent weeks than might normally be expected (please bear in mind this data has a near two-week lag, so several thousand more deaths will have occurred during the lag period).
The ONS are reporting just over 35 thousand deaths due to Covid-19, which I expect to increase to over 36 thousand once reporting catches up. This leaves about ten thousand deaths unaccounted for - which is my worst case estimate for additional Covid-19 deaths during this time.
Over time the percentage difference between the ONS reporting and the final figure reported weeks later (which I estimate as the ONS Forecast figure) will reduce, since more of the numbers become locked in and the overall death rate starts to fall. We are almost at the point when such adjustments become meaningless, so this may be the last week that I include this in the reporting - I will track the variance over time and see whether the impact is large enough to merit it's ongoing inclusion.
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