For reasons previously stated, I've switched reporting of the UK over to Pillar 1 cases only, since this is both consistent and insightful - including Pillar 2 just muddies the waters.
The rate of new cases continue to decline in a fairly linear fashion with plenty of lumps and bumps along the way. The same can be said of the daily death rates - we are in the middle of receiving the data for the weekend, so do not read anything into the most recent dips, Sunday and Monday figures are always low.
Going forward daily deaths should stay in the 500-600 range this week so expect total fatalities to be about 23,000 by the end of the week.
France:
This is still difficult to model and analyse due to the large spike in cases reporting on April 16th, but overall the trend looks very good. New cases are declining quickly compared to peak values and appear to be about half the level they were 7 days ago (although weekend dips make comparisons difficult). Daily fatality rates are also much improved and should average about 200 per day for most of the coming week.
Cumulative deaths are showing signs of slowing (seen as a downward curve on the lower right chart as opposed to a straight line). Expect total deaths to be about 24,000 by the end of the week.
Italy:
The data for Italy is showing a steady if somewhat erratic decline in both new daily cases and daily deaths, with the rate of new cases falling by 50% in just over two weeks. There is a pronounced weekly pattern to the data (caused by weekends) which is also seen in other countries, so it is better to look at the longer term trends than individual points, but overall the picture is looking much better.
Expect daily deaths to stay in the 300-400 range this week, with total deaths reaching about 28,000 by the end of the week.
Spain:
After a period of decline, new daily cases in Spain seem to have flattened off in the last few weeks, so expect daily deaths to follow the same pattern. Expect about 400 deaths per day for the next week, giving a cumulative total of nearly 25,000 by the end of the week.
Germany:
Daily figures for both new cases and deaths are in sharp decline (allowing for weekend dips) with the rate of daily deaths expected to be around the 100 per day point by the end of the week.
Cumulative deaths should approach 6500 by the end of the week. Note: Germany's classification of Covid-19 deaths could well be different to other countries, so direct comparison is discouraged. We await total weekly death statistics (any cause) from Germany with interest.
USA:
New cases in the USA are still very much in the plateau phase having been around the 30,000 new cases per day since April 6th, with a couple of recent higher days on April 24th and 25th. This is quite long for a plateau, but given the large number of population centres in the USA, it may just reflect many localised curves with shorter plateaus overlapping in a slightly offset pattern. I hope to see some evidence of declining cases soon, or at least a decline in the daily death rates that might reflect early pick-up of milder new cases.
For the time being expect daily deaths to remain in the 2000-2500 per day range for some time with cumulative deaths reaching 66,000 by the end of the week.
No comments:
Post a Comment