Thursday, April 9, 2020

Latest from the UK

UK:


Latest data for the UK appears to enforce the assertion that we've hit the peak for new daily cases. Although we've had a couple of dips and spikes along the way, it certainly appears to have levelled out at the 4300 new patient per day mark.

Recent daily trends:



Full updates UK dashboard:




The daily rate of deaths has increased well-ahead of the model for some time now, so I have re-calibrated accordingly.

Also included in the death statistics are the additional figures back-dated number released published by the BBC this afternoon. Not sure why no one else seems to have picked these up - I will back these values out if needed.

From https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52225173


Currently the model suggests daily deaths will hover around the 1000 per day for the next few days at least. But given that we are headed into a long weekend, it may be harder to obtain accurate data in the next few days.


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