UK:
The rate of new cases continue to plateau, but we must soon be reaching the point at which is starts to go down. Most plateaus in other large countries have been about 9 days in length, so we must be due a decrease soon.
I've excluded the spike on April 10th from the analysis - this was from NHS staff and families, so not a like-for-like measure of what has come before. I think what remains is a clearer view of the situation.
From a modelling perspective the rate of fatalities in the UK has settled back to it's previous level following the previous spike from April 1st to April 5th.
Given the steady state of new cases we can expect deaths to continue in the region of 800 per day for the next week or so.
As an aside, I'm watching Italy, France and Spain very carefully as these might be good analogues for the UK. But more analyses of these countries tomorrow.
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