Updated chart on declining cases

So a quick update on the post-plateau chart from a few days ago. Now that we have a little more data we can see that, generally the trends continue much as before with a couple of key things to note:

• New Zealand: These figures have been completely reworked using data from Worldometers - the previous version was based on a chart in the Daily Mail which has not been updated since and seems to bear little resemblance to the new data source. So that seemed like a logical switch to make. The overall story though remains much the same. 

• Israel: Has switched trajectories entirely from the fast declining segment to the slower declining segment. This could be a second plateau of cases caused be a second population becoming infected a few weeks behind the main group of cases. I will dig into this in more detail as and when time allows. 

Spain and Italy seem to be on the same similar trajectories as before, I suspect these may prove to be good analogues for cases in the UK and the US, but only time will tell. At the moment the decline in the rate of new cases is roughly 5% per day for these countries in the slow declining segment as opposed to more like 10% in the faster declining segment.

It will also be interesting to see whether the relaxing of lockdown in Spain will drive an uptick in cases in the following 10 days or so.