UK:
Please find below the updated dashboard for the UK for Pillar 1. This includes an updated forecast model for daily deaths that includes a factor for weekly periodicity (aka v2). More details on the methodology can be found in the previous blog entry.
The last few days have seen a marked decline in the number of new cases for Pillar 1 with yesterday's figure being the first below 2000 whilst in decline and is less than half the peak values being reported a few week ago.
The rate of decline shows some evidence of actual accelerating, but in real terms it is probably too early to tell. Also, I would not be surprised if a proportion of the Pillar 2 cases start to move into Pillar 1 soon, so that may drive a small increase or flat spot in the short term.
Daily deaths are expected to stay around the 600 per day mark for the rest of the week, with a drop down closer to 300 for the weekend figures (reported on Sunday and Monday).
Total hospital deaths will approach the 25,000 mark by May 4th.
In terms of the rate of decreasing new cases (see chart below), Italy, Spain and the UK (Pillar 1) are on very similar trajectories. Both Italy and Spain show periodic weekly uplifts in new cases, which do not appear to be so pronounced in the UK - let us hope the UK trend continues its downward pattern for the next few days.
The number of New Daily Pillar 1 cases is the key metric in understanding the Covid-19 situation in the UK- this is the leading indicator we all need to be tracking.
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