A quick look at Brazil

Brazil:

So, a quick snapshot of Covid-19 cases Brazil.

Brazil started off about a week behind the UK in terms of cases (31st March for 1000+ new cases compared to 23rd March for the UK). However since then the trajectory in Brazil has been quite different.

At the moment new cases are still growing at an exponential rate (seen by the straight dotted line on the logarithmic graph of cumulative new cases). Daily growth is averaging about 6.3% day on day, that's just over 50% growth week on week.

The daily rate of new cases (lower middle chart) shows no signs of real flattening as yet, but with four of the last size points being at the 6,000 mark, it's just possible the plateau may be starting to form. This won't be remotely conclusive until we see at least another 4 days or data.

As a general note, the data values for both new cases and fatalities are fairly erratic, which suggests some variability in reporting - possibly delays in correlating data across a large geographical area.

My model suggests that most of the cases reported above are fairly serious and a reasonably stable lag/probability relationship is observed.

Expect daily deaths for the coming week to average 500 per day, with daily values in the range of 300-800 due to noise and phasing. Expect total reported deaths to approach 9,000 by 5th May.